Trump Predicts Canada-U.S. Trade Deal Within Weeks as New Import Bans Take Effect

By: Ebenezer Adugyamfi & Emmanuel Ayiku
GhanaianNewsCanada | September 29, 2026

WASHINGTON — U.S. President Donald Trump has predicted that the United States and Canada could reach a new trade agreement within the coming weeks, even as another round of American restrictions on Canadian products is set to take effect and relations between the two countries remain strained.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, September 28, Trump said he expected Canadian officials to contact Washington within the next three or four weeks and suggested that Ottawa would ultimately agree to a deal on terms favourable to the United States.

Trump said he believed a deal would eventually be reached, describing the potential agreement as one that would have to be “fair.”

His comments came only hours before new U.S. import restrictions targeting selected Canadian products were scheduled to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, September 29.

The latest developments mark another turn in an increasingly complicated trade dispute between two countries whose economies remain deeply interconnected.

Trump predicts Canadian approach within weeks

Trump told reporters that he expected Canada to return to the negotiating table in the coming weeks.

The U.S. president said he believed Canadian officials would eventually approach Washington and seek an agreement, while also arguing that the United States had been treated unfairly in its trade relationship with Canada.

The comments represent Trump’s latest public assessment of the future of the negotiations. They do not, however, indicate that a new agreement has been reached.

Canadian officials have not announced a new trade deal with Washington.

Instead, Ottawa continues to maintain that its priority is protecting Canadian workers, farmers, families and businesses from what it considers unjustified U.S. trade measures.

The office of Canada’s Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Monday that the government was taking note of the latest American measures coming into force.

Gabriel Brunet, a spokesperson for LeBlanc, said Canada’s focus remained on protecting Canadian economic interests while strengthening the country’s domestic economy and diversifying its international partnerships.

New U.S. import restrictions add pressure

The latest restrictions are expected to affect a range of Canadian products, including certain alcoholic beverages, dairy byproducts and motorcycles.

The measures are part of a broader series of trade actions introduced by the Trump administration during the continuing dispute.

According to Canadian Press reporting, the value of the products covered by the latest import bans has been estimated by BMO at approximately US$1 billion.

Although the direct economic effect of the latest restrictions may be limited compared with the broader Canada-U.S. trading relationship, the measures are significant politically because they add another layer to a dispute that has already disrupted the traditional economic relationship between the two countries.

The restrictions also come after Washington introduced other measures targeting Canadian products and Canadian participation in the U.S. market.

How the current dispute began

The latest escalation follows the collapse of Canada-U.S. trade negotiations in August.

For months, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government and the Trump administration had been working toward a broader agreement intended to establish greater certainty for businesses operating across the two countries.

For a period, both sides indicated that negotiations were making progress.

However, the talks eventually broke down after disagreements over issues that Ottawa considered important to Canada’s economic independence and domestic policy.

Carney said U.S. negotiators had introduced new demands that Canada could not accept.

Among Ottawa’s concerns were proposed restrictions affecting Canada’s ability to establish trade relationships with other countries, as well as issues involving Canadian language and cultural protections.

On August 22, Carney announced that Canadian negotiators were returning to Ottawa after the government concluded that the terms being discussed were not acceptable.

Carney said Canada wanted an agreement that protected Canadian workers and businesses, provided greater stability and respected Canadian sovereignty.

He also said Ottawa would not accept a deal simply because Washington wanted one on a particular timetable.

U.S. responded with additional tariffs

Following the collapse of negotiations, Washington imposed additional tariffs on a range of Canadian products.

Some Canadian industries have faced particularly heavy pressure, including steel, aluminum, automobiles and other sectors affected by separate U.S. tariff measures.

The United States also introduced a 10 per cent tariff connected by the Trump administration to concerns over forced labour in supply chains, although goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, commonly known as CUSMA, are exempt from that particular measure.

Washington subsequently introduced further actions affecting Canadian goods and government procurement.

Canada responded with its own tariffs and other measures designed to protect domestic industries.

The result has been a significant deterioration in what had traditionally been one of the world’s most integrated bilateral economic relationships.

Ottawa says it is preparing for a longer dispute

While Trump is publicly predicting that a deal could be reached within weeks, Canada’s government has continued to prepare for the possibility that negotiations may take considerably longer.

Carney has repeatedly emphasized that Canada must reduce its dependence on the U.S. market and expand its economic relationships with other countries.

The Canadian government has therefore pursued trade and economic partnerships in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and elsewhere.

In an August address explaining Canada’s decision to suspend the latest round of negotiations, Carney said Canada could not control political and economic developments in Washington but could strengthen its own economy and diversify its trading relationships.

He said Canada had been working to expand access to international markets and develop new partnerships so that the country would not be as dependent on the United States.

Canada and the U.S. remain deeply connected

Despite the political confrontation, neither country can easily separate its economy from the other.

Canada remains one of the United States’ largest trading partners, while the United States remains Canada’s overwhelmingly most important export market.

Businesses on both sides of the border depend on integrated supply chains involving manufacturing, energy, agriculture, transportation, financial services and other industries.

That interdependence means that prolonged trade restrictions can create costs not only for Canadian exporters but also for American companies and consumers that depend on Canadian products and resources.

A trade policy analyst quoted in Canadian Press reporting said the latest U.S. measures demonstrate that the Trump administration is willing to use additional trade-policy tools to seek concessions from Ottawa.

At the same time, the analyst noted that resolving the dispute could require both governments to make concessions that they have so far publicly indicated they are unwilling to make.

Trump administration says there is no urgency

Trump’s prediction of a deal within weeks comes against a somewhat different message from senior members of his administration.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said last week that Washington was comfortable with the current situation and that there was no urgency on the American side to reach a new agreement.

Greer indicated that Canadian officials continued to communicate with Washington from time to time, but suggested that the United States was not under pressure to immediately return to comprehensive negotiations.

That creates an important contrast with Trump’s latest prediction.

While Trump believes a deal could emerge within several weeks, there is currently no confirmed negotiating timetable leading to a new Canada-U.S. trade agreement.

Canada faces pressure to balance retaliation and economic stability

For Prime Minister Carney’s government, the challenge is to respond to American tariffs without creating unnecessary economic damage for Canadians.

Ottawa has already acknowledged that retaliatory tariffs can increase costs and reduce consumer choice.

However, the government has argued that allowing Canadian industries to face American restrictions without responding could leave domestic businesses vulnerable.

Carney’s government has therefore pursued a combination of retaliatory measures, domestic support programs and efforts to open new international markets.

The strategy represents a significant change from Canada’s traditional reliance on the United States as its principal economic partner.

What a future deal could involve

If negotiations eventually resume, several major issues are likely to remain on the table.

One of the central questions will be the level of tariffs imposed on Canadian products entering the United States and the corresponding tariffs Canada applies to American goods.

Another issue will be sector-specific tariffs affecting industries such as steel, aluminum and automobiles.

The two sides may also have to address Canada’s supply-management system for agricultural products, particularly dairy.

There are also broader questions surrounding Canadian sovereignty and Ottawa’s ability to establish trade agreements with other countries without restrictions imposed through a Canada-U.S. agreement.

Language and cultural protections have also emerged as important Canadian concerns during the latest negotiations.

These issues mean that a future agreement would likely involve considerably more than simply reducing tariffs.

The significance for Canadian businesses

Canadian businesses are now operating in a considerably less predictable trading environment than they experienced under previous Canada-U.S. trade arrangements.

Companies that export heavily to the United States have had to assess the effect of tariffs, potential import restrictions and changing rules.

Some businesses have begun exploring alternative markets, while others are examining ways to reorganize supply chains and reduce their exposure to U.S. trade policy.

The Canadian government has also encouraged companies to take advantage of new international trade opportunities.

The objective is not necessarily to replace the American market, which remains extremely important, but to ensure that Canadian businesses have more alternatives.

What Trump’s prediction means now

Trump’s comments have reopened the possibility of renewed negotiations, but they should not be interpreted as confirmation that a trade agreement is imminent.

At present, there is no new Canada-U.S. trade deal.

The two governments remain separated by disagreements over tariffs, market access, Canadian trade policy and broader questions surrounding the future structure of the bilateral economic relationship.

Trump says he expects Canada to return to the negotiating table within several weeks.

Ottawa, meanwhile, continues to emphasize protecting Canadian workers and businesses while strengthening the domestic economy and developing relationships with other international markets.

The coming weeks could therefore determine whether Trump’s prediction develops into a new round of formal negotiations or whether the current trade standoff continues.

For Canadians, American businesses and consumers on both sides of the border, the stakes remain considerable because of the extraordinary level of economic integration between the two countries.

For now, Trump’s comments have provided a possible opening for renewed talks — but not yet a deal.