Referendum or Not, a PQ Victory Could Test Mark Carney’s Federal-Provincial Consensus

By: Ebenezer Adugyamfi & Emmanuel Ayiku for GhanaianNewsCanada
September 30, 2026

As Quebec approaches its provincial election, attention is increasingly turning not only to who might form the next government, but also to what that result could mean for Canada’s broader political landscape.

The Parti Québécois (PQ), a party founded on the principle of Quebec sovereignty, has emerged as a major force in the campaign and could return to power for the first time in more than a decade. While PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has said that a referendum on Quebec independence would not be held while U.S. President Donald Trump remains in office, a PQ victory could still have major implications for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s efforts to maintain national unity and build consensus among Canada’s provinces.

Carney has spent much of his time as prime minister promoting cooperation between Ottawa and provincial governments, particularly as Canada responds to U.S. tariffs, trade uncertainty and wider economic pressures. His government has emphasized the need for a coordinated national approach on issues such as trade, energy, infrastructure, defence spending and economic growth.

A PQ government in Quebec would not necessarily end that cooperation, but it could change its tone, priorities and political direction.

A different vision of Canada

The Parti Québécois has long argued that Quebec should have greater control over its affairs and, ultimately, become an independent country.

Quebec has held two sovereignty referendums — in 1980 and 1995 — both of which ended with voters choosing to remain in Canada. The 1995 referendum was particularly close, with the “No” side winning by a narrow margin.

Today, however, support for immediate independence remains below majority levels. Recent polls suggest that roughly 30 to 35 per cent of Quebecers currently support sovereignty, while most prefer remaining within Canada.

Recognizing this political reality, PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has stated that any referendum would be delayed until after Donald Trump leaves office in 2029, arguing that uncertainty in North America could interfere with a calm debate on Quebec’s future.

Yet even without a referendum, a PQ government would likely seek more powers for Quebec, greater autonomy and a stronger provincial voice in national decisions.

That could place the province on a different path from Carney’s approach of seeking broad federal-provincial alignment.

Carney’s search for consensus

Since becoming prime minister, Mark Carney has sought to rebuild cooperation between Ottawa and provincial governments.

The approach has become particularly important as Canada responds to U.S. tariffs, trade disputes and global economic uncertainty.

Carney has emphasized the importance of working with provinces on major projects, including energy infrastructure, trade diversification, industrial development and efforts to strengthen Canada’s economy. He has also stressed that national unity is important during periods of external pressure.

The strategy has involved balancing very different provincial interests.

Western provinces, especially Alberta and Saskatchewan, have focused heavily on energy development and concerns over federal policies affecting oil and gas.

Atlantic provinces have emphasized economic development and immigration.

Ontario has concentrated on manufacturing, trade and industrial policy.

Quebec, meanwhile, has often sought additional powers in areas such as language, immigration, culture and social programs.

Carney’s challenge has been to hold these differing interests together under a shared national agenda.

A PQ government could complicate that effort.

Quebec’s influence in Canadian politics

Quebec occupies a unique position in Canada.

It is the country’s only majority French-speaking province and has distinct legal, cultural and political traditions.

Quebec governments of different political stripes have often sought special arrangements with Ottawa, even when they were not advocating sovereignty.

A PQ government could therefore increase demands for provincial autonomy while simultaneously participating in national discussions.

Analysts note that this would not necessarily create a constitutional crisis, but it could lead to more difficult negotiations between Ottawa and Quebec on areas such as immigration, language policy, taxation and federal spending.

This dynamic could become especially significant if Carney continues pursuing national projects that require provincial cooperation.

Economic pressures reshape the debate

One of the most important changes in the current political environment is the effect of U.S. trade tensions.

Quebec has been among the provinces most affected by tariffs and trade disruptions.

Industries such as steel, manufacturing and exports have faced significant uncertainty, leading many Quebecers to place greater value on economic stability and access to Canadian markets.

This is one reason support for immediate sovereignty has weakened in recent years.

Some Quebecers who might once have considered independence now see remaining within Canada as providing greater economic security during uncertain times.

The PQ has acknowledged this reality by postponing plans for a referendum.

However, economic pressures could also strengthen arguments for Quebec seeking greater control over areas such as trade policy, economic development and cultural protection.

A wider challenge to federal unity

Quebec is not the only province where questions about autonomy have become more prominent.

In Alberta, political debates about provincial powers and dissatisfaction with federal policies have also generated discussions about the province’s future relationship with Ottawa. Alberta is expected to hold a vote related to separation discussions later this year.

This means Carney is managing not one, but several conversations about the balance between federal authority and provincial autonomy.

A PQ government in Quebec would therefore become part of a larger national debate about how Canada should function in the years ahead.

Not necessarily a crisis, but a new political reality

A PQ victory would not automatically lead to a referendum or immediate constitutional conflict.

The party itself has said that a sovereignty vote would not occur in the near future.

However, the election of a government whose long-term goal remains Quebec independence would inevitably change political dynamics in Ottawa.

Federal-provincial meetings could become more complex.

Negotiations over policy areas could become more difficult.

Questions about Quebec’s place within Canada could return to the centre of national politics.

For Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose approach has relied heavily on cooperation and consensus, this would represent a significant political test.

Whether that leads to confrontation, compromise or a new balance between Ottawa and the provinces would depend on the choices made by both governments.

What is clear is that even without a referendum, a Parti Québécois government could reshape Canada’s political conversation and challenge the federal-provincial consensus that Carney has sought to build.