By: Ebenezer Adugyamfi & Emmanuel Ayiku for GhanaianNewsCanada
5 October 2026
Millions of Quebecers are heading to the polls Monday to elect a new provincial government in an election that could significantly reshape the political landscape of the province.
The election comes after eight years of Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) governments and amid growing public concern over the cost of living, pressure on public services, economic uncertainty and Quebec’s relationship with the rest of Canada.
The Parti Québécois (PQ), led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, has entered election day with a lead in several recent polls, putting the separatist party in a strong position as voters prepare to decide whether Quebec should change governments.
However, polling numbers do not determine the final result. Quebec uses a first-past-the-post electoral system, meaning the party that wins the most individual ridings forms the government, rather than the party that necessarily receives the highest province-wide percentage of the vote.
Quebec has 127 electoral divisions, and voters are choosing one Member of the National Assembly in each riding.
An Election After Eight Years of CAQ Government
The election marks the end of an era for the CAQ, which won majority governments in both 2018 and 2022 under former premier François Legault.
Legault’s resignation earlier this year created an additional layer of uncertainty for the governing party.
Christine Fréchette subsequently became CAQ leader and premier, taking over a party that had experienced a significant decline in public support compared with the period when Legault was at the height of his popularity.
Fréchette has spent the campaign attempting to defend the CAQ’s record while presenting herself as a leader capable of protecting Quebec’s economic interests during a period of uncertainty in relations with the United States.
She has also sought to portray U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies as one of the major external challenges facing Quebec.
The CAQ has argued that Quebec needs experienced leadership to protect its economy and businesses during the trade tensions.
Parti Québécois Leads Going Into Voting Day
The Parti Québécois has emerged as the strongest challenger to the CAQ during the campaign.
Under Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the party has sought to combine its traditional sovereignty message with concerns about the economy, affordability, Quebec’s French language and the performance of the provincial government.
A Léger poll published ahead of election day placed the PQ at approximately 29 per cent support, with the party holding a substantial advantage among francophone voters. The poll also found that roughly 77 per cent of respondents wanted a change in government after eight years of CAQ rule.
The PQ’s position is particularly notable because the party won only three seats in the 2022 election.
A significant increase in seats would therefore represent a major political comeback.
St-Pierre Plamondon has spent much of the campaign arguing that Quebecers are ready for a different government and that the province needs a new economic and political direction.
Sovereignty Remains an Important Question
Despite the PQ’s electoral momentum, Quebec independence has not been the only—or even the dominant—issue of the campaign.
St-Pierre Plamondon has promised to pursue a referendum on Quebec sovereignty if the PQ forms government, but he has said such a referendum would not take place while Donald Trump remains president of the United States.
That position has changed the political conversation around sovereignty.
The PQ remains committed to Quebec independence, but the party has sought to reassure voters that a referendum would not immediately follow an electoral victory.
The decision is particularly significant because support for Quebec independence remains well below the levels recorded during the 1995 referendum campaign.
Recent polling cited by Reuters put support for independence at about 30 per cent, compared with nearly 50 per cent during the 1995 referendum.
The economic uncertainty created by Trump’s tariffs has also complicated the sovereignty debate.
Quebec has significant economic exposure to the United States, particularly through industries such as aluminum, steel and manufacturing.
The PQ has therefore argued that the province must first deal with economic uncertainty before considering another referendum.
Trump’s Trade Policies Cast a Shadow Over the Campaign
The influence of Donald Trump’s presidency has been unusually visible in a Quebec provincial election.
Trump’s tariffs and repeated threats involving Canadian trade have created uncertainty for Quebec businesses and industries that depend on access to the U.S. market.
The issue has given provincial leaders an additional challenge because Quebec’s economy is closely integrated with the rest of Canada while also maintaining significant international trade relationships.
Fréchette has attempted to present herself as a defender of Quebec’s interests in dealing with Ottawa and Washington.
St-Pierre Plamondon, meanwhile, has argued that Quebec’s economic future should be protected through greater control over its own affairs.
The trade dispute has also contributed to the PQ’s decision to delay a potential sovereignty referendum.
Cost of Living and Public Services
For many voters, however, the election has been less about constitutional questions and more about everyday economic concerns.
The cost of housing, food and other basic necessities has become a major issue.
Quebec’s public services have also been heavily debated, particularly healthcare and other government services.
The PQ has criticized the CAQ government’s record, arguing that eight years in power have not produced sufficient improvements in the lives of ordinary Quebecers.
The province recorded a deficit of approximately $7.2 billion in the last fiscal year, making government finances another major campaign issue.
The PQ has promised to reduce government spending while also proposing tax changes and reductions in certain subsidies.
The party has said it would seek to balance the provincial budget by 2028-29.
The competing parties have offered different approaches to managing the province’s finances, creating another major dividing line for voters.
Five Major Parties Competing
Quebec’s 2026 election features five major political parties competing for seats in the National Assembly.
They include:
- Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
- Coalition Avenir Québec, led by Premier Christine Fréchette
- Quebec Liberal Party, led by Charles Milliard
- Quebec Conservative Party, led by Éric Duhaime
- Québec solidaire, represented by co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal
The crowded field means votes are divided among several parties in many parts of the province.
That fragmentation could have a significant effect on the number of seats won by each party.
A party can win a riding with a plurality of the vote even if it does not receive a majority of votes in that riding.
Quebec Liberals Seek a Comeback
The Quebec Liberal Party is attempting to rebuild its political standing under new leader Charles Milliard.
The Liberals are presenting themselves as a federalist alternative to the PQ and have focused heavily on economic issues.
Milliard entered the campaign without the same level of name recognition enjoyed by some of his opponents, but the party has sought to gain support particularly among voters in Montreal and English-speaking communities.
The Liberals have also attempted to appeal to voters who oppose Quebec independence but are dissatisfied with the CAQ government.
Earlier in the campaign, polls placed the Liberals and CAQ close to one another, while the PQ maintained the lead.
Conservatives Seek Breakthrough
Éric Duhaime’s Quebec Conservative Party is also seeking to expand its presence in the National Assembly.
The party has positioned itself around lower taxes, opposition to a sovereignty referendum and a more conservative approach to government.
The Conservatives have never won a seat under Duhaime’s leadership, but recent polling has suggested the party could make gains in the 2026 election.
According to the latest Léger numbers reported by Global News, the Conservatives were at approximately 20 per cent heading into election day.
If the Conservatives win several ridings, they could become an important force in the National Assembly, particularly if no party secures a majority.
What a PQ Victory Could Mean for Canada
A PQ victory would have implications beyond Quebec’s borders.
The party’s commitment to Quebec sovereignty would reopen one of Canada’s most sensitive constitutional questions.
However, an election victory would not automatically trigger a referendum or independence.
St-Pierre Plamondon has explicitly said a referendum would not be held while Trump remains in the White House.
A PQ government would therefore initially have to govern Quebec within Canada’s existing constitutional framework while pursuing its broader political objectives.
For Prime Minister Mark Carney’s federal government, a PQ victory could nevertheless create another important national-unity challenge.
Ottawa is already dealing with debates over regional alienation and separatist sentiment in other parts of the country, including Alberta.
A Divided Electorate Could Produce an Uncertain Legislature
One of the biggest questions on election night is whether any party will win a majority of the 127 seats.
The PQ has led in popular support, but its ability to translate that support into seats will depend on where its votes are concentrated.
The Conservatives, Liberals, CAQ and Québec solidaire could also influence the final seat distribution by splitting the vote in individual ridings.
The Canadian Press reported before voting day that the Quebec Conservatives were expected to make a breakthrough and could potentially hold significant influence if no party secured a majority.
That could result in a minority government requiring negotiations with opposition parties to pass legislation.
Quebecers Head to the Polls
Voting began across Quebec Monday, with polls scheduled to close at 8 p.m. Eastern Time.
Élections Québec says approximately 6.4 million voters are registered for the election.
Advance voting took place on September 27 and 28, while additional voting opportunities were available at election offices before election day.
The final result will be determined by the individual riding contests rather than the province-wide popular vote.
As Quebecers cast their ballots, the central question is whether the province will continue with the CAQ, turn toward the Parti Québécois, or produce a different political balance involving the Liberals, Conservatives or Québec solidaire.
Whatever the result, the election is likely to have consequences beyond Quebec.
The outcome could affect Canada’s national unity debate, federal-provincial relations, economic policy and the future of Quebec’s sovereignty movement.
For now, voters have the final say.
GhanaianNewsCanada will continue to follow the results as they are declared across Quebec’s 127 electoral divisions.
