Ghana’s Crude Oil Production Declines for Sixth Consecutive Year, IES Warns of Structural Crisis
By Boakye Stephen, Kumasi, Ghana | Reporting for Ghanaian News Canada | July 14, 2026
Ghana’s crude oil production has declined for six consecutive years, resulting in billions of dollars in lost revenue and raising fresh concerns about the country’s long-term energy security, according to a new report released by the Institute for Energy Security (IES).
The report, authored by energy analysts Smith Prosper Boaheneand Prince Lumor, describes the prolonged decline as a structural crisis driven by ageing oil fields, inadequate upstream investment and the absence of new petroleum agreements since 2018.
According to the analysis, Ghana’s crude oil output fell from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.30 million barrels in 2025, representing a decline of nearly 48 percent over the six-year period.
The Energy Commission projects that production will decline further to 34.83 million barrels in 2026, extending the downturn into a seventh consecutive year if current trends continue.
IES argues that the decline cannot be dismissed as a temporary fluctuation but reflects deep-rooted operational, institutional and policy challenges affecting Ghana’s petroleum industry.
“The decline is not attributable to one shock, but to several structural, operational, and policy failures compounding over an unusually long period,” the report stated.
The sustained fall in production has significantly reduced government petroleum revenues.
According to the report, total petroleum receipts declined by 43.27 percent, falling from US$1.36 billion in 2024 to US$770.27 million in 2025. The decline was attributed to both reduced production volumes and lower international crude oil prices, which dropped from an average of US$86.12 to US$74.93 per barrel during the period.
The report further indicated that crude oil production during the first half of 2025 fell by 26 percent compared with the same period the previous year, while petroleum receipts declined from approximately US$840 million to US$370 million.
Using an illustrative projection, IES estimated that Ghana may have lost more than US$16.5 billion in potential gross oil revenue between 2019 and 2025.
The study suggested that had the country maintained an average annual production growth rate of just three percent through sustained drilling, new petroleum agreements and improved reservoir management, cumulative production could have exceeded actual output by approximately 221 million barrels.
The report identifies the natural depletion of mature oil fields, insufficient replacement reserves and the failure to conclude new petroleum agreements over the past eight years as the principal causes of the production decline.
Ghana’s offshore production remains concentrated in three major oil fields—Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa Gye Nyame.
Although the Jubilee Field remained Ghana’s largest producer in 2025 with 22.2 million barrels, it also recorded the sharpest annual decline of more than 30 percent, partly due to a planned production shutdown between March 26 and April 8.
IES noted that increased production achieved in 2024 following drilling under the Jubilee South East Project demonstrated that targeted investment can slow production decline.
The report also observed that while the COVID-19 pandemic worsened the industry’s challenges, the downward trend had already begun before the global health crisis.
Beyond revenue losses, the think tank warned that declining crude oil production poses broader risks to Ghana’s energy security.
It said reduced petroleum production has contributed to declining revenues for the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), whose petroleum revenue allocation was also reduced from 30 percent to 15 percent under existing policy arrangements.
The report cited findings from the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), which raised concerns about rising cash-call obligations on the TEN Field and approximately US$561.65 million in petroleum revenue linked to GNPC subsidiary Explorco that remains unaccounted for.
IES warned that declining crude production could also reduce domestic natural gas supplies used for thermal electricity generation, increasing Ghana’s dependence on imported fuels and exposing the economy to exchange-rate volatility and fluctuations in global energy prices.
Petroleum revenues currently account for approximately 10 percent of Ghana’s total government income and finance several national development programmes.
Government has acknowledged the production decline and outlined measures aimed at reversing the trend.
According to the 2026 Budget Statement, more than US$3.5 billion in investment commitments have been secured, including US$2 billion to drill twenty additional wells within the Jubilee and TEN fields, as well as a US$1.5 billion Memorandum of Intent covering the Offshore Cape Three Points block.
GNPC is also expected to commence drilling activities within the Voltaian Basin from October 2026, while government continues reviewing upstream fiscal and regulatory policies to attract additional international investment.
Parliament has further approved extensions to Tullow Oil’s petroleum agreements until December 31, 2040, allowing continued operations in the Jubilee and TEN fields while enabling GNPC to increase its ownership stake by 10 percentbeginning in 2036.
IES has urged government to accelerate new petroleum licensing rounds, strengthen regulatory oversight, improve institutional capacity and ensure transparent implementation of planned investment programmes.
Commentary | Boakye Stephen
Ghana’s petroleum sector remains a vital pillar of national development, but sustained declines in production underscore the need for long-term planning beyond reliance on existing oil fields. Greater investment, transparent resource management and economic diversification will be essential to preserving energy security while reducing vulnerability to fluctuations in global commodity markets.
